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HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby HispaZargon » September 28th, 2024, 7:50 am

Hi,

First Light content has been already leaked via HeroQuest official app, so I have already analyzed the difficulty of First Light campaign using my preliminar model.

BEWARE, THERE ARE VERY EXPLICIT SPOILERS AHEAD

I have estimated that Total Difficulty of the campaign is 60100 DPs, 10 Quests in total. Here you have the results I obtained for the rest of official expansion packs under HQ21 rules, for comparison purposes:

1.- The Frozen Horror (9 Quests): 169040 DPs
2.- The Mage of the Mirror (9 Quests): 136336
3.- Rise of the Dread Moon (9 Quests): 114416 DPs
4.- Jungles of Delthrak (9 Quests): 99184 DPs (Average value of the 10 posible combinations of quests)
5.- Against the Ogre Horde (10 Quests): 93487 DPs
6.- The Crypt of Perpetual Darkness (10 Quests): 64954 DPs
7.- Spirit's Queen Torment (14 Quests): 62284 DPs
8.- Return of the Witch Lord (10 Quests): 61980 DPs
9.- First Light (10 Quests): 60100 DPs
10.- Basic Game (14 Quests): 60012 DPs
11.- Kellar's Keep (10 Quests): 56842 DPs
12.- Prophecy of Telor (13 Quests): 55864 DPs

We can see that according to my model, First Light has mostly the exact total difficulty as the Game System campaign, however in terms of average difficulty per quest, the difficulty ranking of each quest pack would result in the following, being First Light average difficulty close to Return of the Witch Lord expansion:

1.- The Frozen Horror: 18782 DPs/quest
2.- The Mage of the Mirror: 15148 DPs/quest
3.- Rise of the Dread Moon: 11442 DPs/quest
4.- Jungles of Delthrak: 11011 DPs/quest (Through the most difficult quests path)
5.- Against the Ogre Horde: 9349 DPs/quest
6.- The Crypt of Perpetual Darkness: 6495 DPs/quest
7.- Return of the Witch Lord: 6198 DPs/quest
8.- First Light: 6010 DPs/quest
9.- Kellar's Keep: 5684 DPs/quest
10.- Spirit's Queen Torment: 4449 DPs/quest
11.- Prophecy of Telor: 4297 DPs/quest
12.- Basic Game: 4287 DPs/quest

... and online official quests ranking:

1. Online Quest -1 - Rogar's Hall (1 Quest): 9480 DPs/quest
2. Online Quest 1 - Forsaken Tunnels of Xor-Xel (1 Quest): 6523 DPs/quest
3. Online Quest 2 - Into the Northlands (1 Quest): 5315 DPs/quest
4. Online Quest 3 - Knightfall (1 Quest): 5027 DPs/quest
5. Online Quest 0 - New Beginnings (1 Quest): 3719 DPs/quest

And here you have a chart where you can see how the difficulty is being increased through Quests of First Light campaign:

HZ-model_v0100_HQ21_FL_Total_Difficulty_2024-09-27.jpg

The following chart shows a comparison of how difficult are the quests of First Light campaign compared with the ones from Game System campaign, all shown in chronological order attending to their corresponding parallel stories:

HZ-model_v0100_HQ21_FL_vs_GS_Total_Difficulty_Comparison_2024-09-27.jpg

Really interesting to highlight that First Light story is fully compatible with the end of Game System one, I mean you can start the Game System with a party of Heroes, play its first two Quests and rescue Sir Ragnar, after that you can start playing First Light with the same party of Heroes, skipping Quests 3 to 12 of the Game System, and once the ten quests of First Light have been played, such party may come back to continue the story of the Game System by playing Quests 13 and 14 to defeat the Witch Lord. Of course the end of GS is much easier than the end of FL, but this hybrid alternative would avoid any story continuity gap if such group of players would like to play also KK and RotWL after First Light.

Combining GS Quests 1-2 + FL Quests 1-10 + GS Quests 13-14, the results for such combined hybrid campaign would be these ones:

    TOTAL DIFFICULTY (14 Quests): 76573 DPs (difficulty between TCoPD and AtOH according to above ranking)
    AVERAGE QUEST DIFFICULTY: 5469 DPs/quest (difficulty between SQT and KK according to above ranking)

Here you have another chart with the difficulty of all released HQ21 quests and expansions up to now, ordered in the official chronological order defined by Hasbro:

HZ-model_v0100_HQ21_Quests_Total_Difficulty_Chrono_2024-09-27.jpg

And here the same chart but also adding the missing legacy classic EU quest packs adapted to NA stats and rules (Wizards of Morcar/Zargon and The Dark Company):

HZ-model_v0100_HQ21_Quests_Total_Difficulty_Chrono_with_Classic_2024-09-27.jpg

Well, with all the postprocessed data in hand, I think the overall difficulty of FL is clearly more challenging than GS, but not in excess. In the other hand, I love the story and how it can be inserted in the already existing lore and basic campaign. I really think Stephen Baker did a great job with this expansion, it will give us fresh air and an awesome alternative for newcomers to the game.

And finally, as always I would like to remember that this Difficulty Model is still a preliminary version with lots of limitations, so its results may not be as accurate as we would like to.

The current version of this model only considers the number an type of Monsters and number and type of Traps potentially found by the Heroes in each Quest. This model does not still consider the rest of matters of the game which could affect to the difficulty, like very special events or abilities, if the heroes can visit the Armory before the quest or not, how many aids the Heroes find (companions, potions, artifacts, etc.), Wandering Monsters, how many gold they find, how powerful are the spells of each spellcaster (the model only accounts the number of spells), etc.

The aim of this model was only trying to give a quick idea of how difficult is each quest and quest pack in those terms, but always looking for simplicity (at least on this stage of the project).

I wish you will enjoy this data.
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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby Kurgan » September 28th, 2024, 11:12 am

Excellent! I especially enjoyed the story discussion of connecting the two campaigns (I was thinking it sets up ROTWL but you could view it as glossing over the ending of the GS and still link the last two quests).


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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby BakaMatt » December 4th, 2024, 10:57 am

Could you clear up how the average DPs are calculated for Against the Ogre Horde?

You've listed a total of 93487 DPs for the ten quests but an average difficulty of 13355 FPs / quest, but wouldn't 93487 / 10 = 9349?

Is there another consideration being made here? I'm thinking maybe the arena quests are being left out of the average?
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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby HispaZargon » December 10th, 2024, 2:43 pm

BakaMatt wrote:Could you clear up how the average DPs are calculated for Against the Ogre Horde?

You've listed a total of 93487 DPs for the ten quests but an average difficulty of 13355 FPs / quest, but wouldn't 93487 / 10 = 9349?

Is there another consideration being made here? I'm thinking maybe the arena quests are being left out of the average?

You are absolutely right. It is a mistake inherited from classic AtHO version analyses which only had 7 quests. The average Quest difficulty oh HQ21 AtHO should be 9349 DPs (10 Quests).

I have corrected it in all applicable previous posts to avoid further misunderstandings. Charts are unnafected, all are the same.

Many Thanks for it!


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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby Special T » February 9th, 2025, 4:25 pm

I apologize if I missed this but would it be possible to list the DP per quest instead of per expansion i.e.

  • Base Game Q1 DP = ?????
  • Base Game Q2 DP = ?????
  • etc.

I appreciate you posting the overall quest DP but it's hard to see where each quest lands on the visual charts.

Thank you.
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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby matteoc » May 25th, 2025, 10:17 am

Nice topic!
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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby HispaZargon » March 13th, 2026, 10:50 pm

Today I have talked in my latest podcast on about this old topic.

Hispa's_Thoughts_Podcast_02_v2_LR.jpg

I though it was a good idea to give at least this kind of overview on my recently created YouTube channel, here is the link to the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsqsTO8XzGk
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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby BakaMatt » March 24th, 2026, 1:00 pm

That was an interesting listen, thanks for sharing your insights. Looking forward to the future delve into your findings on the new Wizards of Morcar release, and seeing where it falls in comparison to the original and the other official releases.
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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby HispaZargon » July 10th, 2026, 11:18 am

Hi,

At the beginning of this year I analyzed the difficulty of Wizards of Morcar remake's expansion, and Dread on the Horizon online quest, using my preliminar model. Then, BakaMatt, here you have the results I obtained! Sorry for not having shared them before but I wanted to be sure of what I got. BEWARE, THERE ARE VERY EXPLICIT SPOILERS AHEAD

I have estimated that Total Difficulty of the expansion is 89484 DPs (9 Quests, one of them double). Here you have the results I obtained for the rest of official expansion packs under HQ21 rules, for comparison purposes:

1.- The Frozen Horror (9 Quests): 169040 DPs
2.- The Mage of the Mirror (9 Quests): 136336
3.- Rise of the Dread Moon (9 Quests): 114416 DPs
4.- Jungles of Delthrak (9 Quests): 99184 DPs (Average value of the 10 posible combinations of quests)
5.- Against the Ogre Horde (10 Quests): 93487 DPs
6.- Wizards of Morcar (9 Quests): 89484 DPs
7.- The Crypt of Perpetual Darkness (10 Quests): 64954 DPs
8.- Spirit's Queen Torment (14 Quests): 62284 DPs
9.- Return of the Witch Lord (10 Quests): 61980 DPs
10.- First Light (10 Quests): 60100 DPs
11.- Basic Game (14 Quests): 60012 DPs
12.- Kellar's Keep (10 Quests): 56842 DPs
13.- Prophecy of Telor (13 Quests): 55864 DPs

... and online official quests ranking:

1. Online Quest -1 - Rogar's Hall (1 Quest): 9480 DPs
2. Online Quest 1 - Forsaken Tunnels of Xor-Xel (1 Quest): 6523 DPs
3. Online Quest 2 - Into the Northlands (1 Quest): 5315 DPs
4. Online Quest 3 - Knightfall (1 Quest): 5027 DPs
5. Online Quest 0 - New Beginnings (1 Quest): 3719 DPs
6. Online Quest 4 - Dread on the Horizon (1 Quest): 3019 DPs

And here you have a chart where you can see how the difficulty is being increased through Quests of Wizards of Morcar remake's expansion:

HZ-model_v0100_HQ21_WoM_Total_Difficulty_2026-06-14.jpg

Here you have another chart with the difficulty of all released HQ21 quests and expansions up to now, ordered in the official chronological order defined by Hasbro (please notice that I have moved a bit to the right the First Light campaign curve since I was mistaken in previous posts and such campaign actually ends at the same time as the Game System one from a narrative perspective):

HZ-model_v0100_HQ21_Quests_Total_Difficulty_Chrono_2026-06-14.jpg

And here you have a comparison between the remake's version of Wizards of Morcar, and the difficulty numbers of the classic European version of 1991 (EU), and the classic fanmade version performed by Phoenix according to American rules (NA):

HZ-model_v0100_HQ21_WoM_Total_Difficulty_Comparison_2026-06-14.jpg

The values I have obtained with my model clearly reflects that the remake of Wizards of Morcar has a similar total difficulty as the remake of Against the Ogre Horde, however it is true that the model could be too optimistic in terms of difficulty because it does not account many uncertainties derived from the many evil sorcerers and Chaos spells the Heroes will need to face in this Wizards of Morcar expansion. Nevertheless, the obtained results also says me that the original five quests from the classic version of Wizards of Morcar have been generally nerfed to a same level of difficulty. This is a very interesting decision by the design team of Avalon Hill, which has really impressed me since it surprisingly suggests me than maybe Avalon Hill is using some kind of mathematical model to design quests? Well, who knows... I even asked Avalon Hill through their Discord server, unfortunatelly without any response yet. Anyway, this topic and the reasons to make all the classic five quests with same difficulty are for me unclear, but I will explain my thoughts about it in more detail in a video on my YouTube channel for anyone interested. I will post on this thread video's link when available.

I hope you will enjoy this data.
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Re: HispaZargon's Difficulty Calculation Model (HZ-DCM)

Postby HispaZargon » July 10th, 2026, 11:41 am

As mentioned in the previous post of this thread, here it is the related podcast video I have just published on my YouTube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIjyOSuAtgQ

Hispa's_Thoughts_Podcast_07_LR.jpg
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