Endurance Calculator

[Bareheaded Warrior]

This project was inspired by various topics being discussed at the Inn and the realisation that they could benefit from some data to inform the discussions. I have listed them out at the end of this post but the main one that inspired me was Monster's Defend Dice

I’m keeping this topic for discussions around the Endurance Calculator tool itself including any general applications for it, and the relevant data will be added to the appropriate topics themselves

Note: Uses stats and rules from the US (1st) Edition unless otherwise stated

Endurance is a term that I have used to describe how long a character (Hero or Monster) is likely to last when repeatedly attacked by an opponent with a given Attack Dice [AD] value.

Note: This doesn’t include any counterattacks, it is purely how long they remain standing whilst repeatedly being attacked

Essentially this term will be expressed as the % chance of a character being killed in the first attack round, or (surviving the first round and) being killed in the second attack round and so on.

For example:

2DD,1BP = Orc, Skeleton

RND >	1	2	3	4
2AD	57.2	25.6	10.4	6.8
3AD	74.6	19.3	6.1
4AD	86.1	13.9

This shows that any Monster with 2 Defend Dice and 1 Body point, such as an Orc or Skeleton under repeated attacks from an opponent with the corresponding number of Attack Dice 2,3,4, lets use 2AD for the example, has a 57.2% chance of being killed in the first attack round, a 25.6% chance of surviving the first attack round but being killed in the second and so on

Eventually I intend to build this up to a full set of all AD1-6 range and all combinations of DD and BP so that this complete data set can be used for all official monsters stats but also homebrewed, variants, other editions (EU/UK & US have some differences in stats – aside from the obvious BP) and it can also be used to make informed decisions around modifications and their effects without having to generate another dataset.

Method

I have decided to calculate the data using a program that runs the scenario a 1000 times rather than a purely statistical method, mainly because I’m terrible with statistics (although to be fair I’m not much better at coding!)

To avoid a long tail of statistically insignificant events I have decided to apply a ‘5% roll up rule’ to the results which effectively means that any values to the right hand side that are less than 5% will just get totalled up into the previous value.

For example the raw output for a Goblin’s Endurance against a 2AD attacker is:
1DD,1BP = Goblin

RND >	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
2AD	67.4	21.6	8	2.1	0.4	0.4	0.1

But applying the 5% rollup rule this rolls up the outliers and becomes

1DD,1BP = Goblin

RND >	1	2	3
2AD	67.4	21.6	11

Once I’ve got the basic output, I’ll post it here as an excel attachment (other spreadsheet programs are available) along with the code so that those of a coding persuasion can check my code for flaws, those with a preference for statistics can check whether the output from my model is reasonably well aligned with a statistical approach and those with neither preference or inclination can just eyeball the data and let me know if anything looks incorrect!

Applications

I am intending to expand the list in stages, outlined below, please let me know if you think there is more uses/applications for this data, and ways to expand it that I haven’t considered and/or you think the sequence could be improved.

• All 8 basic monsters against an AD range of 2-4 to act as an official benchmark for Black Shield Defence
• Same set of monsters but using White Shield Defence for the Monsters Defend Dice Topic
• Do the same for the 4 Heroes with their starting values
• Do the same for the 4 Heroes with max. values (with are?)
• Same data set but using the White Shield defence for Monsters and Black Shield as extra Skull
• Same data but expand to cover 0DD for scenarios where no defend roll is permitted
• Same data set Heroes and Monsters but considering Mind rather than Body attacks and defence

Topics

Obviously, this could be applicable to various discussions but those that I have identified first are listed below, feel free to make any other suggestions.
• Monster's Defend Dice
• Deciding if/when to upgrade Monster ‘equipment’ or stats e.g., equip standard Orcs with shields after Orc’s Bane has been discovered Game System Q13 and beyond, or easier to implement, from KK Quest Book and beyond - post to follow
• Change of Mind

[Bareheaded Warrior]

Version 2 Released

In light of feedback from initial version, I've now updated to version 2 which includes:

Update the Black Shield Defend stats for the 8 Basic Monsters using 10000 iterations rather than 1000 to make it more robust
The White Shield Defend for the 8 Basic Monsters
The White Shield Defend w/ Black Shield as extra Skull for the 8 Basic Monsters (C/D Warrior, Orc and Skeleton - Done)

Outstanding items list

Currently working version 3 to include the calculations to cover the following:

The White Shield Defend for the 4 Starting Heroes
The White Shield Defend w/ Black Shield as extra Skull for the rest of the 8 Basic Monsters
The White Shield Defend against Black Shield as extra Skull for the 4 Starting Heroes

Add the Alt. Zombie - DD2, BP2
Add the Gold. Wizard - DD2, BP5
Add the Troll - DD2, BP3
Add Ogre, Reaper, Henchman

The Mind Defend standard dice for the starting Heroes
The Mind Defend against Black Shield as Skull for the starting Heroes

Also need to expand it for use to compare the effects of ignoring armour, what is the equivalent number of AD for an attack that doesn't allow a Defend Roll?