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On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

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On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Maurice76 » Sunday September 2nd, 2018 11:02am

Based on my most recent playthrough with a group of friends, one thing piqued my interest: the odds of the numerous dice outcomes and how they related to one another in either man-to-man combat, or to overcome the Armour Class of a certain amount. I've gone through the hassle of writing some program code to calculate all the various possibilities and aggregated that data in various tables. These tables can then be used to evaluate the effects of swapping out dice for one another, or for reducing or increasing Armour Class, or similar. For example, it will show the increase in survival when a Space Marine player chooses to use Terminator armour instead of their regular armour, or how certain weapons behave in man-to-man against varying opponents.

The first table is posted below, as it is the simplest one to understand. It is a table that tells the odds of hitting a unit on the game board, based on that unit's Armour Class, i.e. a static value. The first two columns show the number of dice rolled for the attack in question; the first column the number of white dice, the second column the number of red dice. To use this table, find the entry that lists the dice used in the roll you want to evaluate. For instance, if you want to see the odds of a (Chaos) Space Marine armed with a Bolter, Gretchin, or Orc while shooting (under normal conditions of course), find the line that shows a "2" for the White dice and "-" for the Red dice. The rest of the line shows the odds of doing at least 1 point of damage against a unit which has an Armour Class value listed in the top row. Taking the example of the 2 White dice, the odds of hitting and damaging a unit with Armour Class 2 is then shown to be 8,33%.

Chance of a Dice Roll to overcome a certain amount of Armour Class

White Red MISS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 - 66,67% 33,33% 16,67% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
1 1 33,33% 66,67% 47,22% 25,00% 8,33% 2,78% 0,00% 0,00%
1 2 16,67% 83,33% 68,06% 48,15% 27,31% 14,81% 6,02% 1,85%
1 3 8,33% 91,67% 81,25% 65,97% 46,91% 31,33% 18,06% 8,95%
2 - 44,44% 55,56% 33,33% 8,33% 2,78% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
2 1 22,22% 77,78% 59,26% 35,65% 17,59% 7,41% 1,85% 0,46%
2 2 11,11% 88,89% 75,93% 57,33% 37,58% 22,45% 11,03% 4,71%
2 3 5,56% 94,44% 86,11% 72,80% 55,81% 39,70% 25,08% 14,20%
2 4 2,78% 97,22% 92,13% 83,16% 70,13% 55,64% 40,59% 27,20%
2 5 1,39% 98,61% 95,60% 89,81% 80,48% 68,72% 55,12% 41,33%
3 - 29,63% 70,37% 48,15% 20,37% 8,80% 1,85% 0,46% 0,00%
3 1 14,81% 85,19% 69,14% 46,60% 27,55% 13,81% 5,40% 1,85%
3 2 7,41% 92,59% 82,10% 65,69% 47,26% 30,79% 17,36% 8,72%
3 3 3,70% 96,30% 89,81% 78,63% 63,69% 47,90% 32,64% 20,26%
- 1 50,00% 50,00% 33,33% 16,67% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
- 2 25,00% 75,00% 58,33% 38,89% 16,67% 8,33% 2,78% 0,00%
- 3 12,50% 87,50% 75,00% 58,33% 37,04% 23,15% 12,04% 4,63%
- 4 6,25% 93,75% 85,42% 72,92% 55,32% 39,97% 25,77% 14,35%
- 5 3,13% 96,88% 91,67% 82,99% 69,68% 55,59% 40,92% 27,35%
- 6 1,56% 98,44% 95,31% 89,58% 80,09% 68,52% 55,17% 41,38%
Last edited by Maurice76 on Sunday September 2nd, 2018 11:32am, edited 3 times in total.


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Re: On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Maurice76 » Sunday September 2nd, 2018 11:03am

For man-to-man combat, the dice rolls are somewhat harder to evaluate. Rather than rolling to overcome a static value, the player is trying to overcome the value of another player. This means that combat can go either way - the attacker might win and deal damage, or might lose and suffer damage in return - or it could end up in a draw. The odds of winning, losing or tieing the roll vary depending on the dice rolled by both parties involved, which makes it far more complex than the Armour Class table listed in the opening post. In fact, there are 3 tables that detail the whole chance distribution - although the table for losing the battle is simply the inverse lookup of the winning table, by swapping the two dice rolls in the lookup below.

To use this table, like with the roll against the Armour Class value, find the matching line in the table below that detail the specifics of your dice roll. Then, instead of looking up an Armour Class value, look up the column that details the dice rolled by the opponent. The cell on the same row as your roll and the same column as the roll of the opponent shows the odds of winning that particular battle.

For instance, let's say the Space Marine player lets his Librarian attack a Dreadnought in melee combat, after using a Melta Bomb to aid the effort. This means the Librarian attacks with 2 White and 4 Red Dice. The row detailing this is just about halfway in the table. The Dreadnought rolls 2 White and 2 Red, so find that column in the top two rows. The table shows that the Librarian has 67,48% chance of rolling higher than the Dreadnought. Without the Melta Bomb, the Librarian would have had only 42,81% chance to roll higher. To find out the odds for the Dreadnought, you can swap the dice rolls around: look for the row with 2 White and 2 Red dice in the 2 columns on the left and find the 2 White and 4 Red dice in the two top rows, to find the matching cell in the table. This one shows the Dreadnought has only 22,12% chance to overcome the Librarian.

Chance of a Dice Roll to win in melee combat

White 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 - - - - - - White
Red - 1 2 3 - 1 2 3 4 5 - 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 Red
White Red White Red
1 - 25,00% 14,35% 8,10% 4,51% 18,52% 10,49% 5,86% 3,24% 1,77% 0,96% 13,58% 7,61% 4,22% 2,31% 19,44% 11,11% 6,25% 3,47% 1,91% 1,04% 1 -
1 1 56,48% 38,50% 25,39% 16,32% 46,91% 31,25% 20,24% 12,83% 7,99% 4,90% 38,35% 25,06% 15,99% 10,01% 46,76% 31,48% 20,56% 13,12% 8,21% 5,06% 1 1
1 2 74,92% 57,25% 42,03% 29,89% 66,13% 49,29% 35,49% 24,85% 17,01% 11,42% 57,47% 41,94% 29,68% 20,49% 65,59% 49,23% 35,64% 25,08% 17,23% 11,61% 1 2
1 3 85,65% 71,08% 56,54% 43,46% 78,77% 63,80% 49,76% 37,62% 27,71% 19,96% 71,44% 56,63% 43,38% 32,31% 78,19% 63,57% 49,75% 37,74% 27,88% 20,14% 1 3
2 - 43,98% 27,31% 16,59% 9,90% 34,34% 20,99% 12,59% 7,45% 4,35% 2,52% 26,50% 15,99% 9,49% 5,57% 35,19% 21,68% 13,09% 7,78% 4,57% 2,65% 2 -
2 1 67,67% 48,77% 33,89% 22,90% 57,83% 40,72% 27,79% 18,51% 12,08% 7,76% 48,69% 33,61% 22,58% 14,85% 57,64% 40,90% 28,09% 18,80% 12,33% 7,95% 2 1
2 2 81,47% 64,95% 49,65% 36,72% 73,42% 57,11% 42,81% 31,15% 22,12% 15,38% 65,22% 49,64% 36,56% 26,22% 72,92% 56,99% 42,90% 31,34% 22,33% 15,58% 2 2
2 3 89,45% 76,61% 62,89% 49,86% 83,51% 69,87% 56,25% 43,86% 33,28% 24,68% 76,97% 63,03% 49,84% 38,27% 83,01% 69,62% 56,19% 43,92% 33,41% 24,83% 2 3
2 4 94,03% 84,71% 73,38% 61,43% 89,91% 79,34% 67,48% 55,59% 44,53% 34,80% 85,05% 73,59% 61,52% 49,91% 89,51% 79,06% 67,33% 55,55% 44,57% 34,90% 2 4
2 5 96,64% 90,18% 81,34% 71,08% 93,90% 86,12% 76,41% 65,77% 55,09% 45,01% 90,45% 81,56% 71,22% 60,42% 93,62% 85,87% 76,23% 65,67% 55,06% 45,04% 2 5
3 - 58,33% 38,93% 25,24% 16,02% 47,61% 31,17% 19,92% 12,49% 7,72% 4,71% 38,36% 24,71% 15,60% 9,68% 48,07% 31,71% 20,39% 12,85% 7,97% 4,88% 3 -
3 1 76,08% 57,70% 42,06% 29,73% 66,79% 49,44% 35,37% 24,62% 16,76% 11,20% 57,78% 41,89% 29,47% 20,24% 66,47% 49,50% 35,59% 24,89% 17,01% 11,41% 3 1
3 2 86,36% 71,49% 56,69% 43,43% 79,30% 64,06% 49,80% 37,53% 27,55% 19,78% 71,82% 56,76% 43,34% 32,17% 78,80% 63,88% 49,82% 37,66% 27,73% 19,96% 3 2
3 3 92,27% 81,22% 68,58% 55,91% 87,28% 75,12% 62,23% 49,90% 38,91% 29,63% 81,58% 68,76% 55,95% 44,18% 86,84% 74,85% 62,12% 49,91% 39,00% 29,75% 3 3
- 1 41,67% 26,85% 16,74% 10,19% 33,80% 21,22% 12,98% 7,77% 4,58% 2,66% 26,85% 16,51% 9,94% 5,88% 33,33% 21,30% 13,19% 7,99% 4,75% 2,78% - 1
- 2 66,20% 48,30% 33,91% 23,11% 57,18% 40,66% 28,00% 18,78% 12,34% 7,96% 48,53% 33,79% 22,88% 15,14% 56,48% 40,59% 28,16% 19,02% 12,56% 8,14% - 2
- 3 80,56% 64,51% 49,54% 36,81% 72,84% 56,89% 42,84% 31,31% 22,32% 15,58% 64,88% 49,59% 36,68% 26,42% 72,15% 56,67% 42,88% 31,46% 22,51% 15,77% - 3
- 4 88,89% 76,22% 62,70% 49,82% 83,06% 69,59% 56,15% 43,89% 33,40% 24,83% 76,62% 62,86% 49,82% 38,36% 82,48% 69,31% 56,07% 43,94% 33,52% 24,98% - 4
- 5 93,69% 84,40% 73,16% 61,32% 89,59% 79,07% 67,32% 55,53% 44,56% 34,89% 84,75% 73,37% 61,41% 49,90% 89,16% 78,78% 67,16% 55,49% 44,60% 34,99% - 5
- 6 96,44% 89,94% 81,12% 70,93% 93,68% 85,89% 76,23% 65,66% 55,05% 45,03% 90,22% 81,34% 71,07% 60,34% 93,38% 85,64% 76,05% 65,56% 55,02% 45,07% - 6
White 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 - - - - - - White
Red - 1 2 3 - 1 2 3 4 5 - 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 Red
Last edited by Maurice76 on Sunday September 2nd, 2018 11:31am, edited 3 times in total.


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Re: On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Maurice76 » Sunday September 2nd, 2018 11:04am

For convenience sake, it might be easier to simply use a Loss table instead of swapping around the dice rolls. Hence I am posting the matching Loss table below as well. If we use the example of the Librarian with Melta Bomb who goes man-to-man with the Dreadnought, we first find the dice rolls of the Librarian (2 White, 4 Red) in the two leftmost columns of the table and match it up to the 2 White and 2 Red of the Dreadnought. It shows a value of 22,12%, just as already found by reversing the dice rolls in the previous tables.

Chance of a Dice Roll to lose in melee combat

White 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 - - - - - - White
Red - 1 2 3 - 1 2 3 4 5 - 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 Red
White Red White Red
1 - 25,00% 56,48% 74,92% 85,65% 43,98% 67,67% 81,47% 89,45% 94,03% 96,64% 58,33% 76,08% 86,36% 92,27% 41,67% 66,20% 80,56% 88,89% 93,69% 96,44% 1 -
1 1 14,35% 38,50% 57,25% 71,08% 27,31% 48,77% 64,95% 76,61% 84,71% 90,18% 38,93% 57,70% 71,49% 81,22% 26,85% 48,30% 64,51% 76,22% 84,40% 89,94% 1 1
1 2 8,10% 25,39% 42,03% 56,54% 16,59% 33,89% 49,65% 62,89% 73,38% 81,34% 25,24% 42,06% 56,69% 68,58% 16,74% 33,91% 49,54% 62,70% 73,16% 81,12% 1 2
1 3 4,51% 16,32% 29,89% 43,46% 9,90% 22,90% 36,72% 49,86% 61,43% 71,08% 16,02% 29,73% 43,43% 55,91% 10,19% 23,11% 36,81% 49,82% 61,32% 70,93% 1 3
2 - 18,52% 46,91% 66,13% 78,77% 34,34% 57,83% 73,42% 83,51% 89,91% 93,90% 47,61% 66,79% 79,30% 87,28% 33,80% 57,18% 72,84% 83,06% 89,59% 93,68% 2 -
2 1 10,49% 31,25% 49,29% 63,80% 20,99% 40,72% 57,11% 69,87% 79,34% 86,12% 31,17% 49,44% 64,06% 75,12% 21,22% 40,66% 56,89% 69,59% 79,07% 85,89% 2 1
2 2 5,86% 20,24% 35,49% 49,76% 12,59% 27,79% 42,81% 56,25% 67,48% 76,41% 19,92% 35,37% 49,80% 62,23% 12,98% 28,00% 42,84% 56,15% 67,32% 76,23% 2 2
2 3 3,24% 12,83% 24,85% 37,62% 7,45% 18,51% 31,15% 43,86% 55,59% 65,77% 12,49% 24,62% 37,53% 49,90% 7,77% 18,78% 31,31% 43,89% 55,53% 65,66% 2 3
2 4 1,77% 7,99% 17,01% 27,71% 4,35% 12,08% 22,12% 33,28% 44,53% 55,09% 7,72% 16,76% 27,55% 38,91% 4,58% 12,34% 22,32% 33,40% 44,56% 55,05% 2 4
2 5 0,96% 4,90% 11,42% 19,96% 2,52% 7,76% 15,38% 24,68% 34,80% 45,01% 4,71% 11,20% 19,78% 29,63% 2,66% 7,96% 15,58% 24,83% 34,89% 45,03% 2 5
3 - 13,58% 38,35% 57,47% 71,44% 26,50% 48,69% 65,22% 76,97% 85,05% 90,45% 38,36% 57,78% 71,82% 81,58% 26,85% 48,53% 64,88% 76,62% 84,75% 90,22% 3 -
3 1 7,61% 25,06% 41,94% 56,63% 15,99% 33,61% 49,64% 63,03% 73,59% 81,56% 24,71% 41,89% 56,76% 68,76% 16,51% 33,79% 49,59% 62,86% 73,37% 81,34% 3 1
3 2 4,22% 15,99% 29,68% 43,38% 9,49% 22,58% 36,56% 49,84% 61,52% 71,22% 15,60% 29,47% 43,34% 55,95% 9,94% 22,88% 36,68% 49,82% 61,41% 71,07% 3 2
3 3 2,31% 10,01% 20,49% 32,31% 5,57% 14,85% 26,22% 38,27% 49,91% 60,42% 9,68% 20,24% 32,17% 44,18% 5,88% 15,14% 26,42% 38,36% 49,90% 60,34% 3 3
- 1 19,44% 46,76% 65,59% 78,19% 35,19% 57,64% 72,92% 83,01% 89,51% 93,62% 48,07% 66,47% 78,80% 86,84% 33,33% 56,48% 72,15% 82,48% 89,16% 93,38% - 1
- 2 11,11% 31,48% 49,23% 63,57% 21,68% 40,90% 56,99% 69,62% 79,06% 85,87% 31,71% 49,50% 63,88% 74,85% 21,30% 40,59% 56,67% 69,31% 78,78% 85,64% - 2
- 3 6,25% 20,56% 35,64% 49,75% 13,09% 28,09% 42,90% 56,19% 67,33% 76,23% 20,39% 35,59% 49,82% 62,12% 13,19% 28,16% 42,88% 56,07% 67,16% 76,05% - 3
- 4 3,47% 13,12% 25,08% 37,74% 7,78% 18,80% 31,34% 43,92% 55,55% 65,67% 12,85% 24,89% 37,66% 49,91% 7,99% 19,02% 31,46% 43,94% 55,49% 65,56% - 4
- 5 1,91% 8,21% 17,23% 27,88% 4,57% 12,33% 22,33% 33,41% 44,57% 55,06% 7,97% 17,01% 27,73% 39,00% 4,75% 12,56% 22,51% 33,52% 44,60% 55,02% - 5
- 6 1,04% 5,06% 11,61% 20,14% 2,65% 7,95% 15,58% 24,83% 34,90% 45,04% 4,88% 11,41% 19,96% 29,75% 2,78% 8,14% 15,77% 24,98% 34,99% 45,07% - 6
White 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 - - - - - - White
Red - 1 2 3 - 1 2 3 4 5 - 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 Red
Last edited by Maurice76 on Sunday September 2nd, 2018 11:33am, edited 3 times in total.


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Re: On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Maurice76 » Sunday September 2nd, 2018 11:05am

Finally, there is the chance to roll for a Draw instead of having a victor in man-to-man combat. The chance to score a tie in such a combat is detailed in the table below. Finding the value is done likewise to previous tables. Taking our example, for instance, we find the Librarian and Dreadnought have 10,40% chance to be both left standing without any damage from that fight. And for the careful observer, with 67,48% chance for the Librarian to win and 22,12% chance to lose, these 3 chances add up to 100% as we would expect.

Chance of melee combat to end in a draw

White 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 - - - - - - White
Red - 1 2 3 - 1 2 3 4 5 - 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 Red
White Red White Red
1 - 50,00% 29,17% 16,98% 9,84% 37,50% 21,84% 12,67% 7,31% 4,20% 2,39% 28,09% 16,31% 9,42% 5,41% 38,89% 22,69% 13,19% 7,64% 4,40% 2,52% 1 -
1 1 29,17% 22,99% 17,36% 12,61% 25,77% 19,98% 14,81% 10,56% 7,30% 4,92% 22,72% 17,24% 12,52% 8,77% 26,39% 20,22% 14,93% 10,66% 7,39% 5,00% 1 1
1 2 16,98% 17,36% 15,95% 13,57% 17,28% 16,82% 14,86% 12,26% 9,61% 7,25% 17,28% 16,00% 13,62% 10,93% 17,67% 16,86% 14,81% 12,23% 9,61% 7,27% 1 2
1 3 9,84% 12,61% 13,57% 13,09% 11,33% 13,30% 13,52% 12,52% 10,86% 8,96% 12,54% 13,64% 13,19% 11,78% 11,63% 13,31% 13,44% 12,44% 10,80% 8,93% 1 3
2 - 37,50% 25,77% 17,28% 11,33% 31,33% 21,18% 13,99% 9,04% 5,74% 3,58% 25,89% 17,22% 11,21% 7,15% 31,02% 21,14% 14,07% 9,16% 5,85% 3,67% 2 -
2 1 21,84% 19,98% 16,82% 13,30% 21,18% 18,57% 15,10% 11,62% 8,58% 6,12% 20,14% 16,95% 13,36% 10,03% 21,14% 18,44% 15,02% 11,60% 8,60% 6,16% 2 1
2 2 12,67% 14,81% 14,86% 13,52% 13,99% 15,10% 14,38% 12,60% 10,40% 8,20% 14,86% 14,99% 13,63% 11,55% 14,11% 15,01% 14,26% 12,51% 10,35% 8,19% 2 2
2 3 7,31% 10,56% 12,26% 12,52% 9,04% 11,62% 12,60% 12,28% 11,13% 9,55% 10,53% 12,34% 12,63% 11,83% 9,22% 11,60% 12,50% 12,19% 11,06% 9,51% 2 3
2 4 4,20% 7,30% 9,61% 10,86% 5,74% 8,58% 10,40% 11,13% 10,95% 10,11% 7,23% 9,64% 10,93% 11,18% 5,90% 8,60% 10,35% 11,05% 10,87% 10,05% 2 4
2 5 2,39% 4,92% 7,25% 8,96% 3,58% 6,12% 8,20% 9,55% 10,11% 9,98% 4,84% 7,24% 9,00% 9,96% 3,72% 6,17% 8,19% 9,50% 10,05% 9,92% 2 5
3 - 28,09% 22,72% 17,28% 12,54% 25,89% 20,14% 14,86% 10,53% 7,23% 4,84% 23,28% 17,51% 12,59% 8,74% 25,08% 19,75% 14,73% 10,53% 7,28% 4,90% 3 -
3 1 16,31% 17,24% 16,00% 13,64% 17,22% 16,95% 14,99% 12,34% 9,64% 7,24% 17,51% 16,22% 13,77% 11,00% 17,01% 16,71% 14,82% 12,26% 9,62% 7,25% 3 1
3 2 9,42% 12,52% 13,62% 13,19% 11,21% 13,36% 13,63% 12,63% 10,93% 9,00% 12,59% 13,77% 13,32% 11,88% 11,26% 13,25% 13,49% 12,52% 10,86% 8,97% 3 2
3 3 5,41% 8,77% 10,93% 11,78% 7,15% 10,03% 11,55% 11,83% 11,18% 9,96% 8,74% 11,00% 11,88% 11,65% 7,29% 10,01% 11,47% 11,73% 11,10% 9,90% 3 3
- 1 38,89% 26,39% 17,67% 11,63% 31,02% 21,14% 14,11% 9,22% 5,90% 3,72% 25,08% 17,01% 11,26% 7,29% 33,33% 22,22% 14,66% 9,53% 6,10% 3,84% - 1
- 2 22,69% 20,22% 16,86% 13,31% 21,14% 18,44% 15,01% 11,60% 8,60% 6,17% 19,75% 16,71% 13,25% 10,01% 22,22% 18,83% 15,16% 11,68% 8,66% 6,22% - 2
- 3 13,19% 14,93% 14,81% 13,44% 14,07% 15,02% 14,26% 12,50% 10,35% 8,19% 14,73% 14,82% 13,49% 11,47% 14,66% 15,16% 14,25% 12,47% 10,32% 8,19% - 3
- 4 7,64% 10,66% 12,23% 12,44% 9,16% 11,60% 12,51% 12,19% 11,05% 9,50% 10,53% 12,26% 12,52% 11,73% 9,53% 11,68% 12,47% 12,11% 10,99% 9,46% - 4
- 5 4,40% 7,39% 9,61% 10,80% 5,85% 8,60% 10,35% 11,06% 10,87% 10,05% 7,28% 9,62% 10,86% 11,10% 6,10% 8,66% 10,32% 10,99% 10,80% 9,99% - 5
- 6 2,52% 5,00% 7,27% 8,93% 3,67% 6,16% 8,19% 9,51% 10,05% 9,92% 4,90% 7,25% 8,97% 9,90% 3,84% 6,22% 8,19% 9,46% 9,99% 9,87% - 6
White 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 - - - - - - White
Red - 1 2 3 - 1 2 3 4 5 - 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 Red


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Re: On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Anderas » Tuesday September 4th, 2018 3:24pm

That table lead me to develop a new Space Crusade die. It is not stronger, it is in between:

In my games I employ a blue die. Right now I can't remember if it was 0-0-0-1-2-2 or 0-0-0-1-1-2 though I think the second more probable.

It is for weapons that hit better but not necessarily stronger than the white dice weapons.
A bolter has now 1W1B in my games, having a less laughable performance against gretchins, being a small bit better against the others too.

I just took out my space crusade box. It is 0-0-0-1-1-2. It is everywhere among the equipment.
I also made a strong die with 0-0-0-2-3-4 but for some reason I did not employ that one anywhere.

It was just bothering me somehow that a weapon strong enough to kill a dreadnought with a decent probability just never miss a gretchin. In the end my weapon system does the same but feels better. Maybe just because I tinkered with it myself?

I also have salvo weapons now: You can shoot the bolter two times if you remain stationary or one time if you move. The heavy bolter is salvo 3, so 3 shots stationary and one on the move. It is a nice option.


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Re: On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Maurice76 » Tuesday September 4th, 2018 4:50pm

I kinda like those home rules, Anderas. It makes weapons more versatile. Is Salvo as an ability available to the Chaos forces as well?

As for your new dice, I like those as well. I've been thinking about such variations as well, but until very recently I didn't have a way to properly evaluate those :P. Still, the other thing holding me back is that my playgroup just finished a playthrough of StarQuest and we'll be starting with HeroQuest in october. Guess StarQuest will have to remain on the shelf for a while again.

Edit: using my dice chance sheet, I ran the numbers on your new blue die as you stated it for your Bolter: 1W1B instead of 2W. The percentages change, though not by much:
Miss: 44,44% -> 33,33%
Hit AC0: 55,56% -> 66,67%
Hit AC1: 33,33% -> 36,11%
Hit AC2: 8,33% -> 11,11%
Hit AC3: 2,78% -> 2,78%

So it's mostly a reduction in miss chance in favor of hitting Gretchins (and Genestealer Hybrids, if you employ them as stated in White Dwarf 134 & 145). The chance to increase stuff that wears armor has only increased very marginally.

I do have to pose a question, though: are Gretchins really so problematic? They're basically cannon fodder already. I would assume that the chance to miss is basically also because Gretchins are so nimble. Then again, the Space Marines are trumpeted as being the Empire's Elite ... their training should more than make up for that :P. Despite their Elite status, those Space Marines sure suffer high casualty ratings in their mission :P.


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Re: On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Anderas » Wednesday September 5th, 2018 12:11am

Gretchins are not so much of a problem. But the SM shoot a little bit more elite-ish. :D

As said, the blue one sits perfectly between white and red. So you can go half a step up.

It also annoyed me that a bolter with targeter was roughly comparable with a two-red-weapon. A targeter allows to replace a white with a blue, for bolt weapons. You hit better, not stronger. Well, the average goes up, too.

I was also allowing for one targeted shot instead of two rapid fire shots when stationary, giving the bolter 1W1R. :mrgreen: Now it is really more allround-ish and I love playing the blue one from time to time.

Well, and I see you were talking star quest. You're German after all? :mrgreen:

Yes my Chaos Warriors have absolutely the same options like the spacies. Making them worthy enemies. Calculate a stationary bolter against a space marine and compare to before. Again it is not much, but enough to make them a bit more feared and to justify their cost of 5 points. Before they were just expensive gretchins with a close combat option.


The main bit of work was maybe tinkering with the event card deck. The original is able to kill one group of spacies completely alone. So it is too strong for the game with one group, ok for two groups, then again too weak for a game with three groups.


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Re: On dice rolls: chance distributions in Space Crusade

Postby Maurice76 » Wednesday September 5th, 2018 7:14am

Anderas wrote:Gretchins are not so much of a problem. But the SM shoot a little bit more elite-ish. :D


I catch your drift ;). In hindsight, after seeing the percentage changes, I was able to reason through the why of it. In all honesty, I think the game might work better if the Space Marines as well as enemy units had multiple hitpoints too based on unit type, besides the Dreadnought. It might be a bit of a nightmare to administrate the whole mess once the shooting starts, but it would make armor more meaningful. Then you could up the hit chance, without severly overpowering the Space Marines.

It also annoyed me that a bolter with targeter was roughly comparable with a two-red-weapon. A targeter allows to replace a white with a blue, for bolt weapons. You hit better, not stronger. Well, the average goes up, too.


But that's what a targeter already does; you simply re-roll the worst of the dice you rolled, hoping for a better score. We house-ruled that one, though: weapons with targeters simply allowed for 1 die extra of the proper type, scratching the lowest die of the roll before applying the outcome. Saves you a die roll each time and thereby speed up the game somewhat. In any case, the total number of dice in the roll - targeter or not - doesn't change; the outcome should, though.

Well, and I see you were talking star quest. You're German after all? :mrgreen:


Nope, Dutch, though I guess that's close enough :P. I believe you are, though?

Yes my Chaos Warriors have absolutely the same options like the spacies. Making them worthy enemies. Calculate a stationary bolter against a space marine and compare to before. Again it is not much, but enough to make them a bit more feared and to justify their cost of 5 points. Before they were just expensive gretchins with a close combat option.


I agree with that sentiment. I always regretted that I could only ever equip them with a Rocket Launcher. Why wouldn't I be able to use a Plasma Cannon or Assault Cannon instead? Or, use multiple Heavy Weapons in the team? Might be tied in with the Rank system, too. Each Rank allowing for an extra Heavy Weapon on the team, up to 3 in total. Or give the Chaos Space Marine squads equipment cards too. Provide options for the Chaos player ;).


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