Lots of questions!
Since I made this quest book, I continued to develop the Questimator. The first excel version of Mohawk is not existing anymore. The current version calculates the same quest some ten or twenty times with different Hero Groups.
Yes I use the Questimator tool to calculate
the fights of a quest. Including special monsters - I've not encountered a monster that was not calculable.
Then, for Balur or other special wizard characters, special quest rules and so on, I do some manual calculation on top. For the spell "Summon Undead" for example I would calculate three times with the three outcomes of the spell and then use the average. I also try to imagine how I would play this figure and let it act accordingly in the estimation. If the heroes can find healings in the quest, I substract them from the total BP loss. I normally don't subtract the wizard's healing spells from the total, not sure if I should as he often needs them himself. Normally I calculate 3 wandering monsters, if the WM is a hard one, I calculate two. I take a minute for every room and try to estimate how many monsters and heroes can fight here in parallel. That's done by hand and has a huge influence on the result. That's where the "estimation" comes in, side by side with the math.
Finally there are traps you can find, and I don't calculate them, and traps you can't find, and I add those to the result 100%.
Then I publish.
The Trial with different groups looks like that. "Your Group" is a group that is given in the input excel table, the other groups are generics I use every time.
The number is the BP the group would lose.
The "2D" group is below beginner level because the Barbarian starts with 3 Dice right away.
You can see that there is a world of difference between the different equipment levels.
In these numbers, the heroes all go into a room - they could be better sometimes if they play door blocking.
On the other hand, the variance is like 8 BP up or down. That means, if a group "normally" loses 13 BP, with one or two bad dice rolls they can lose quickly more than 20 BP. Or with lucky dice, they can have a walk in the park.
Normally I'd say a quest with 14 BP loss is well balanced, with 18 BP it's "hard".
So this would be the result for "The Trial", american monster BP.
Hero Group - Hero BP loss - Total Group BP loss (including Mercenaries) - Total Party Kill Probability
4 Dice + 5 Helbardiers | ....2.6 | ....10.6 | ....0.0 |
4 Dice + 3 Swords | ....3.5 | ....5.5 | ....0.0 |
4 Dice + 2 Swords | ....3.8 | ....5.8 | ....0.0 |
4 Dice + 3 Helbardiers | ....3.9 | ....9.9 | ....0.0 |
4 Dice + 4 Helbardiers | ....4.3 | ....10.3 | ....0.0 |
4 Dice + 1 Sword | ....4.4 | ....6.4 | ....0.0 |
Group 5D | ....4.9 | ....4.9 | ....0.0 |
4 Dice + 2 Helbardiers | ....5.5 | ....9.5 | ....0.0 |
Group 4D | ....7.5 | ....7.5 | ....0.0 |
Your Group | ....7.5 | ....7.5 | ....0.0 |
Group 3D | ....13.0 | ....13.0 | ....0.0 |
Beginners | ....21.4 | ....21.4 | ....13.0 |
Group 2D | ....25.9 | ....25.9 | ....60.0 |
Group 1D | ....70.9 | ....70.9 | ....100.0 |
For example, if one was trying to do this same level of effort for other (non-core) quests? What would a good process to use?
* Preparing a table containing some core information per room: How many Heroes can fight each turn, how many monsters can fight each turn, how many heroes might fight the first turn (this is often different), which monsters are in this room.
* Questimating.
* Adapting the table for green, for yellow, for red, for violet
* making a quest map with those colored monsters on it.
The “difficulty” for each of the groups, none of them hit 20, when would one make a “hard” quest? IE would doing a matrix comparing running a quest at a higher level than heroes are at standard, how do they compare? (A green group running a yellow, or a yellow running a red?)
See my example for "the Trial" above. Most people say "the Trial" is frustratingly hard for a beginners group. For three dice, however, it comes out quite average - Base Game Quests are all around 12-14. Most people say it's too easy when the result is around 8 to 10.
So, playing a quest with one equipment step less for everyone is "hard" already, playing it with one equipment step more is "boring" already.
I've made also calculations for one Hero less and for two heroes less. Other than the normal calculations, those reduced hero groups consist only of dwarfes.
Basically, it's like stepping down one on the Equipment ladder, with a big BUT: But you have less BP to spend. So where a 4-Hero-Group might go out with 19 BP and say "That was hard", a 2-Hero-Group coming out with 19 BP loss is just 2 Heroes in coffins. See that Total Party Kill Probability in the last column.
On the other hand, if your Heroes are overequipped (At least 2 Potions of Healing, or one Equipment step too high, or 2-3 Mercenaries), it might be interesting to have one or two heroes less.
Those tables get very long already.
Hero Group - Hero BP loss - Total Group BP loss (including Mercenaries) - Total Party Kill Probability
Group 5D | ....4.9 | ....4.9 | ....0.0 |
2 heroes 4D and 1 Sword | ....5.3 | ....7.3 | ....0.0 |
Group 4D | ....7.5 | ....7.5 | ....0.0 |
Your Group | ....7.5 | ....7.5 | ....0.0 |
2 heroes 4D and a Halberd | ....7.9 | ....9.9 | ....0.0 |
2 heroes 4D and 1 Scout | ....8.0 | ....10.0 | ....0.0 |
4 dice 3 heroes | ....8.6 | ....8.6 | ....0.0 |
2 heroes 3D and 1 Sword | ....9.2 | ....11.2 | ....2.0 |
2 heroes 4D | ....10.3 | ....10.3 | ....4.0 |
Group 3D | ....13.0 | ....13.0 | ....0.0 |
2 heroes 3D and 1 Halberd | ....13.1 | ....15.1 | ....37.0 |
2 heroes 3D and 1 Scout | ....14.4 | ....16.4 | ....55.0 |
3 dice 3 heroes | ....15.1 | ....15.1 | ....14.0 |
2 heroes 2D and 1 Sword | ....16.2 | ....18.2 | ....77.0 |
2 heroes 3D | ....19.7 | ....19.7 | ....96.0 |
2 heroes 2D and 1 Halberd | ....22.8 | ....24.8 | ....99.0 |
Group 2D | ....25.9 | ....25.9 | ....60.0 |
2 heroes 2D and 1 Scout | ....27.2 | ....29.2 | ....100.0 |
2 dice 3 heroes | ....31.6 | ....31.6 | ....100.0 |
2 heroes 2D | ....43.2 | ....43.2 | ....100.0 |
Group 1D | ....70.9 | ....70.9 | ....100.0 |
You can nicely see here that, after everything is said and done, if the mercenaries have the same dice like the heroes, they just add their BP to the group in most cases without further effect.