### Re: Monster slaying cost

Posted:

**Monday October 6th, 2014 11:57am**Hey,

i am trying to do my own calculations now in Excel.

The Brute Force Method is working well - so well, i decided to test the deviation of results after 10 000 000 Cycles and much, much less cycles.

In fact, i found that with 37500 cycles, the results are exact to 2%. Meaning, if you show 2 digits (0.24 for example) then it is likely you will not see the deviation in the second digit; and if you see it, very often it is just .1 difference

After i found that out, it sped up the crunching big time.

___

I found that it is a huge, huge, huge difference if the monster has the initiative or not. So much that a standard Goblin with 1 Body Point is costing you .8 Body points if he has the initiative; and he costs you .2 body points if the Hero has the initiative and strikes first. Other than many other small things, i think this really has to be included in your calculation of the Mission difficulty.

A wandering Monster (or a monster appearing because of a trap, because of a spell or other things) has the initiative, so it deals the high amount of damage. A Monster that is waiting for you in a room normally has the low value.

___

Did you think about the variance? My first little try of calculating the variance/standard deviation was... erm... slow. This point is particularly important if you want to size your dungeon; because if you want to put the Barbarian together with a 5.8 MSC into a room, savely thinking - the Barbarian has 8 Body Points, the Monster will remove 5.8 (or anything you calculated for your specific Monster in this specific situation), then you're quite wrong and you risk losing the Barbarian.

The typical standard deviation I found so far was more or less around 2 for the higher results. I will write more on this topic when i have more secured data. But already now, i can say:

A Monster with 5.8 MSC might just deal between 3.8 and 7.8 damage as "entirely normal result" (68% propability); and he might deal between 1.8 and 9.8 damage as a result that is "not normal, but *lemony goodness* happens" (27% propability). Higher and lower results happen with ~4.5%; meaning they are possible but do not appear very often.

Meaning, if you use a calculated monster against a single hero, please take care that you keep some "security distance" between the Hero's life points and the Monster's MSC. If you have a Hero with 6 Life points, rather use a MSC 3 Monster and send a second MSC 3 Monster if the first accidentally under-performs. Don give him one single all-or-nothing MSC 5 Monster, it's too risky - with two exceptions, of course: If the Hero has enough Potions of Healing, here we go; and if it is the Final Boss of your dungeon, he shall really be dangerous.

____

I did find a working and accurate formula to calculate single-bodypoint-Monsters without need of data crunching. Sadly, the same formula underperforms between 5% and 15% if i apply it to multi-bodypoint-Monsters, so i have still to work on it. The charme of having a really working formula is, of course, that you don't need to wait minutes until it is calculated, but instead it is instantly. So if you want to size your final boss monster to the actual stats of your group of heros, you could do it life in an App on your mobile phone instead of trusting old calculations on a paper table.

____

Multi-Hero against one Monster Problem: It can be easily solved by mastering the dungeon accordingly. Have a goblin or some piece of furniture for every hero just to block the way - only the target hero gets the specifically tailored boss Monster. Easy solution to a mathematically complicated problem.

i am trying to do my own calculations now in Excel.

The Brute Force Method is working well - so well, i decided to test the deviation of results after 10 000 000 Cycles and much, much less cycles.

In fact, i found that with 37500 cycles, the results are exact to 2%. Meaning, if you show 2 digits (0.24 for example) then it is likely you will not see the deviation in the second digit; and if you see it, very often it is just .1 difference

After i found that out, it sped up the crunching big time.

___

I found that it is a huge, huge, huge difference if the monster has the initiative or not. So much that a standard Goblin with 1 Body Point is costing you .8 Body points if he has the initiative; and he costs you .2 body points if the Hero has the initiative and strikes first. Other than many other small things, i think this really has to be included in your calculation of the Mission difficulty.

A wandering Monster (or a monster appearing because of a trap, because of a spell or other things) has the initiative, so it deals the high amount of damage. A Monster that is waiting for you in a room normally has the low value.

___

Did you think about the variance? My first little try of calculating the variance/standard deviation was... erm... slow. This point is particularly important if you want to size your dungeon; because if you want to put the Barbarian together with a 5.8 MSC into a room, savely thinking - the Barbarian has 8 Body Points, the Monster will remove 5.8 (or anything you calculated for your specific Monster in this specific situation), then you're quite wrong and you risk losing the Barbarian.

The typical standard deviation I found so far was more or less around 2 for the higher results. I will write more on this topic when i have more secured data. But already now, i can say:

A Monster with 5.8 MSC might just deal between 3.8 and 7.8 damage as "entirely normal result" (68% propability); and he might deal between 1.8 and 9.8 damage as a result that is "not normal, but *lemony goodness* happens" (27% propability). Higher and lower results happen with ~4.5%; meaning they are possible but do not appear very often.

Meaning, if you use a calculated monster against a single hero, please take care that you keep some "security distance" between the Hero's life points and the Monster's MSC. If you have a Hero with 6 Life points, rather use a MSC 3 Monster and send a second MSC 3 Monster if the first accidentally under-performs. Don give him one single all-or-nothing MSC 5 Monster, it's too risky - with two exceptions, of course: If the Hero has enough Potions of Healing, here we go; and if it is the Final Boss of your dungeon, he shall really be dangerous.

____

I did find a working and accurate formula to calculate single-bodypoint-Monsters without need of data crunching. Sadly, the same formula underperforms between 5% and 15% if i apply it to multi-bodypoint-Monsters, so i have still to work on it. The charme of having a really working formula is, of course, that you don't need to wait minutes until it is calculated, but instead it is instantly. So if you want to size your final boss monster to the actual stats of your group of heros, you could do it life in an App on your mobile phone instead of trusting old calculations on a paper table.

____

Multi-Hero against one Monster Problem: It can be easily solved by mastering the dungeon accordingly. Have a goblin or some piece of furniture for every hero just to block the way - only the target hero gets the specifically tailored boss Monster. Easy solution to a mathematically complicated problem.